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CSI: Strap yourselves in for a bumpy 2018 (Jan. 5, 2018)

As the new year begins the outlook for Chinese steel is far more positive than it was a year ago, but it is unlikely to repeat the success it had over the last twelve months.

In this issue we break down our forecasts for the year by sector, as well as the key overarching trends, especially in policy, which inform our numbers.

Our conclusions are that, while overall demand is unlikely to grow further and should trend slowdown down over the coming years, short term volatility will remain high, or even increase.

The political environment is priming prices for sudden and unexpected movements, and market participants will have to react quickly to make the most of short term opportunities.

The question now is, how wrong will the analysts be this year? And why?