Session 1: Steel market turbulence and support for raw materials

This session will look at how global supply and demand for steel products has developed in 2023, amid slowing economic growth and potential recession. Demand for scrap and other raw materials is dependent on steelmakers’ capacity utilisation, which has been challenged globally due to weaker end-use demand for steel amid high inflation, tightening monetary policies and Europe’s energy crisis. Much hope, however, is pinned on a Chinese market recovery following the end of the Asian giant’s zero-Covid policy, as well as the rapid emergence of another Asian giant, tipped to one day become the driving force behind steel consumption, India. This session will analyse steel supply and demand dynamics, pricing developments, changing trade patterns, and other issues affecting steel markets, in order to set the scene for the day’s in-depth discussion on raw materials markets. Is steel demand likely to provide support for raw materials in 2023?

Format: 10-12 min presentations + Q&A

Topics:

• Russia-Ukraine war repercussions on steel market one year on
• Post-Covid China outlook
• Latest trade pattern developments
• Steel pricing trends
• Automotive sector recovery following semiconductor shortages
• What end-use markets will out- and underperform this year?
• Europe economic woes’ impact on steel market

☕ Networking Break ☕

Session 2: What awaits the global scrap market?

Scrap has long been a critical feedstock for steelmakers, especially those in Turkey and the US. The established convention is that Turkey is the largest buyer, while the US and EU are the main suppliers. When Turkish mills cannot sell their steel, global scrap demand takes a hit. However, new trends have emerged that are changing the dynamic. The global push to decarbonise steelmaking means many steelmakers are turning their attention to scrap as a fast way to reduce emissions. Numerous blast furnace-based producers in Europe are meanwhile gradually switching to the electric arc furnace route. This is putting pressure on scrap availability and leading some regions, such as the EU, to consider restricting the export of scrap. New steelmaking powerhouses are meanwhile emerging in the Indian subcontinent that will shift demand for scrap eastwards and provide tough competition for Turkish buyers. This session will look at the latest developments in the global scrap market, including the latest trading and pricing trends. How is the tough economic situation impacting activity at scrap collectors and supply onto the market? Do US and EU suppliers still see Turkey as the most important scrap player or is the Indian subcontinent taking over? What is keeping scrap prices at historically elevated levels and will this trend continue? What is the outlook for the current scrap pricing cycle? All these topics and more will be discussed.

Format: 10-15 min presentations + panel

Topics:

• Turkish energy cost woes’ impact on scrap demand
• How will green steel targets change global scrap demand?
• Will supply grow sufficiently?
• Resource nationalism effect on scrap trade
• The latest developments in China’s scrap market – importer or exporter?
• Scrap pricing trends
• Turkey’s role in the scrap market waning?
• Which grades will be most popular?
• Who are the new suppliers on the horizon?

🍴 Lunch Break 🍴

Session 3: The new player on the block – Indian subcontinent scrap demand bourgeoning

India recently overtook South Korea as the world’s second-largest scrap importer, and there is plenty of scope for further growth, given the emerging Asian giant aims to treble steelmaking capacity and increase its scrap consumption. When Turkish mills slowed or stopped buying scrap for periods last year amid challenging steel export sales, Indian subcontinent demand carried the seaborne scrap market. Much of the increased consumption, however, will be provided for by domestic supply. India aims to significantly expand and modernise its scrap collecting and processing infrastructure to make use of locally-available feedstock. Various auto shredder ventures have been or are being set up, while Tata Steel has invested into scrap processing technology. In recent years, Bangladesh has invested into substantial new EAF capacity, thereby necessitating increased scrap imports. For its part, Pakistan has also seen the launch in recent years of various small induction furnace-based long steel mini-mills that consume scrap. All three countries are also shipbreaking powerhouses. Is ship scrap generation a viable source of feedstock in this region going forward? Will the region ultimately overtake Turkey as the world’s main scrap importer? What progress is being made in the development of local scrap processing infrastructure? How likely is Indian demand for scrap to grow in the short term given blast furnace investments are still being made here? How are the increasing volumes of bulk imports changing India’s scrap import market?

Format: 10-15 min presentations + panel

Topics:

• What India’s National Steel Policy means for scrap demand/supply
• The impact on the market of India’s increasing bulk scrap imports
• India’s car scrapping/auto shredding growth – impact on scrap supply
• Will India grow its share of EAF steelmaking?
• How have Bangladesh EAF steelmaking investments in recent years impacted the scrap market?
• How are Pakistan’s economic/financial woes affecting scrap demand?
• Is shipbreaking a viable scrap source going forward?

☕ Networking Break ☕

Session 4: DRI/HBI, the other side of the metallics coin

Direct reduced iron has long been a staple feedstock in some parts of the world, such as the Middle East, where scrap is used merely as a supplement. However, with decarbonisation driving the phasing out of blast furnaces, and hydrogen championed as the new iron ore reductant, DRI is poised to take on a much broader, global role. A host of European steelmakers have announced investments into DRI-EAF steelmaking to gradually replace their BF models, while the Middle East plans to further expand its DRI- and iron ore pellet-making capability to cater for regional and export demand. A major issue for DRI production in recent years has been the availability of high-Fe-content, DR-grade pellet feedstock. How will supply of this respond to greatly increased demand amid new DRI-making investments? The world’s largest iron ore miner and pellet producer Vale has pre-empted this scenario by planning to build “Mega Hub” industrial complexes in Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Oman to establish a localised supply chain for low-emission metallics to feed the region’s steelmakers. Metalloinvest has traditionally been the world’s largest seaborne HBI supplier, but sanctions have complicated trade with Russia. How have DRI/HBI trade patterns changed? What is the scope for Turkish mills to begin using DRI/HBI to replace some scrap requirement? Iran is the world’s largest natural gas-based DRI producer, but gas shortages have recently hampered production. How are these likely to pan out going forward and what impact will this have on the market? What are the latest pricing trends in the merchant DRI/HBI market? This session will aim to answer these questions and discuss the most important issues impacting ore-based metallics.

Format: 10-15 min presentations + Q&A

Topics:

• How is decarbonisation driving investments into DRI-making?
• Will DR-pellet supply be sufficient to meet increasing DRI production?
• Vale’s prospective “Mega Hub” complexes
• How have merchant HBI trade patterns changed since the outbreak of war in Ukraine?
• DRI pricing trends
• Scope for Turkish mills to use DRI

🍸 End & Cocktail reception 🍸