Prices for coil from northwestern European integrated mills have softened again. Although the drop is not steep, it is consistent. India’s export duty imposition had many European observers predicting a shortage of imported material and, ultimately, a stabilisation in domestic prices. But that is yet to materialise.

“It is too soon to say whether the Indian taxes will influence the European market much,” a Dutch service centre manager tell Kallanish. A German trader agrees, and points out that “India was anyway not the price-breaker recently; it was Japan and Turkey – they are under pressure, and have become more, let’s call it, flexible with prices”.

“India’s tax is not enough to offset the immediate consequences of the Ukraine war,” a manager at a German distributor concurs. He does not see a lot of extra offers coming from Tukey, though. He also points at the massive potential impact on the market of Chinese developments, which make clear forecasts for Europe difficult. China might continue being depressed by Covid-19 and national economic issues, or it might recover soon, with big repercussions for the rest of the world.

For the moment, the German sources anticipate hot rolled coil prices to soften to three-digit figures. One says this will happen “later this year”, the other says “pretty soon”.

Meanwhile, a Dutch buyer of big volumes states that transactions for €1,000/tonne ($1,076) ex-works are already being observed, but he does not stipulate whether this applies to regular spot orders. It seems clear, though, that deals below €1,050/t are now possible.