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Kallanish Kallanish

Knowledge matters Knowledge matters

September, 28th 2020

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SEP 14
14:48

Price expectations diverge in Benelux scrap market

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Benelux scrap market participants have varying views after Turkey’s withdrawal from the scrap market last Thursday.

After concluding some deals at higher prices last week, Turkish mills noted there is sufficient availability of scrap and halted their scrap purchases on Thursday. Last week, EU-origin HMS 1&2 80:20 increased by $4/tonne on-week.

Benelux dock prices, meanwhile, stood at €210-217/t ($249-258) delivered for HMS 80:20 on Monday. Some exporters are seen to have paid as high as €220/t on Friday to load their vessels, and decreased their prices to €210/t on Monday. Although there are exporters maintaining their prices at €217/t to be able to collect material for their already sold vessels, others seem to be cautious due to Turkey’s lower price expectations.

On the other hand, scrap suppliers in the Benelux expect local scrap prices to remain strong.

A scrap supplier tells Kallanish: “Scrap demand is still better than supply. Local guys here will not care much about Turkey’s expectations, I’m afraid. Exporters will chase even harder as vessels need to be loaded.”

Another supplier expects the recovery seen in the European steel market to reflect in steel production, and therefore scrap demand.

An EU-origin scrap exporter, however, says: “No exporter would like to commit to buying at €215-220/t when Turkey is out of the market and clarity is lacking. Besides, euro/dollar parity is strong and very volatile; it could exceed 1.2 anytime. It is time to wait and see.”

An EU-supplier says local mills try to carry as little inventory as possible, so any kind of "…disruption" is likely to cause an immediate reaction, possibly even panic.

Although suppliers point to strong domestic demand, exporters do not accept this justification as material consumed domestically is completely different from that exported. Exporters think Turkey’s price expectation cannot be ignored as it is the largest export destination.

An EU-origin scrap supplier is heard to have sold to Egypt on Friday, though the exact price is yet to be confirmed. Pakistan bought 2,000 tonnes of shredded at $325/t cfr from a European supplier last week. No EU-origin sales have been heard in India recently.

Although there are contrasting thoughts in the market, Kallanish expects EU-origin scrap prices in Turkey to undergo a correction.