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Kallanish Kallanish

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October, 19th 2021

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SEP 23
15:15

Turkish rebar export quotes stable despite absent demand

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Turkish rebar producers have kept their export quotes mostly unchanged since last week despite the absence of demand in the global market.

Turkish mills’ official quotes stand mostly at $670-680/tonne fob Turkey actual weight.

A Turkish mill tells Kallanish: “There is literally zero demand. The market is on wait-and-see mode for both buyers and sellers. Although China has returned from the holiday with an upward trend, the market first wants to see stabilisation. Although the [Chinese real estate giant] Evergrande deal on Wednesday has settled nerves to some extent, it has not provided full relief.”

Turkish producers find no reason to decrease prices amid absent demand. However, they are seen to be ready for negotiations over firm bids.

Even major export markets such as Yemen and Israel are seen to have halted purchases this week.

Although Turkish mills had been expecting Asian demand to rebound, the Evergrande debt contagion issue is currently undermining these expectations.

No remarkable sales have been heard so far this week, with producers having seemingly already closed business for the week. “We are not expecting to see a change in demand this week. Things have to become clearer first, specifically with Evergrande,” says another mill.

The Evergrande issue, meanwhile, is expected to keep markets on edge for another couple of weeks, hampering business.

Following some sales in previous weeks, Turkish mills are continuing to receive inquiries about billet from North Africa. However, no fresh sale has been heard as buyers are bidding at much lower prices compared to Turkish offers.

In Turkey’s domestic market, the central bank’s announcement to decrease interest rates has surprised most market participants and caused the lira to weaken sharply against other currencies.

Due to the lira depreciation, mills have increased prices on a TRY basis. With the lira at 8.75 per dollar by close of business Thursday, Turkish mills’ domestic rebar prices were mostly at TRY 6,840-6,900/t ex-works, including VAT. Although the weakening of the lira caused stockist demand to improve slightly on Thursday, market instability and shortages of certain rebar sizes persist.

Besides poor demand arising from uncertainties, Turkish mills are seen struggling with higher energy costs – which are expected to increase further – and costlier freight prices. Their demand for scrap, consequently, remains poor.

Burcak Alpman Turkey