With their domestic demand impacted by the coronavirus outbreak and inventories building up, Chinese suppliers are expected to return to the export market. This is according to the committees of the International Rebar Exporters and Producers Association (Irepas) meeting at the end of February in Belgrade. Chinese billet has already been heard offered in the Mediterranean area.

In the US, the export of scrap has become difficult and containerised scrap costs have increased. Nevertheless, the $40/net ton price increase last week by major US flats steelmakers should push up scrap prices by $20/tonne in the March-buying round. If US rebar prices also go up, there could be further Turkish rebar export deals to the US, Irepas says.

Turkish shipments to the US will continue over the longer term but will not return to the same tonnages seen prior to Section 232. This is because Turkish mills are to be levied with US anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD).

Scrap prices are seen remaining volatile due to uncertainties and protectionism. The raw materials committee of Irepas expects scrap to be rangebound in 2020 at $240-280/t cfr Turkey and iron ore at $75-90/t cfr China under a neutral scenario. However, there are downside risks persisting and the coming weeks will be crucial to understand how this will develop over the year.