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Kallanish Steel Weekly: Billet prices hold strong, confirming Chinese drive (July 21, 2020)

Since the beginning of April, billet prices in the CIS have started to recover. As of last week, the recovery reached some $50/tonne from the lowest point registered back in the fourth quarter of 2016, indicating that the market is continuing to show resilience in the face of the problems created by coronavirus and the strength of the Chinese market keeps supporting steel levels globally.

Although sales remain scarce in the CIS billet export market, those suppliers with August-casting volumes have ramped up offers last week as demand continues to push prices up.

China remains active in sourcing billet, but no new CIS cargoes were booked there in the past week. A Russian coastal scrap-based producer with August availability large enough to justify Asia-bound sales is now offering at $390/tonne fob Black Sea. Some traders say it might have sold to China at $420/t cfr on Wednesday.

China and very few ASEAN destinations were bidding at $412-415/t cfr this week, rendering sales impossible on higher freight. Chinese buyers rejected $415/t cfr from a Russian supplier, while the $420/t cfr sale was not confirmed by press time. The latest Chinese bids yet again net back to $375/t fob Black Sea for a large vessel, considering freight for a 30,000-tonne vessel is around $38-40/t, traders say.