Plug-in electric vehicles will account for one in four passenger vehicles sold globally in 2025 and more than half in China, according to a new report by BloombergNEF.

The study estimates a 25% rise in passenger EV sales this year to 22 million units, three-quarters of which will occur in China. Europe and the US will account for 17% and 7%, respectively.

By 2030, analysts project annual sales to reach 39m EVs, Kallanish writes. China will still dominate with a 20% share, followed by South Korea and the US with around 5%.

The EV share of new registrations continues to increase amid technological improvements that, in turn, provide better safety, performance and cost. Indeed, China is the only large market where EVs are on average cheaper to buy than equivalent internal combustion engines.

Moreover, the expansion of charging networks, which in some nations have doubled in size over the past 18 months, is assuaging the so-called “range anxiety.” Favourable policies are also key, which is why BNEF trimmed its US 2030 sales forecasts by 14m EVs.

Washington is rolling back supportive measures such as federal fuel-economy standards, a $7,500 tax credit for buyers, and investment in charging infrastructure, which, alongside 25% tariffs on automotive imports, “bring down the outlook for sales.” BNEF’s forecast assumes that California will retain the ability to impose tighter emission restrictions compared to the national standards, which Washington is trying to scrap.

“This is a major uncertainty in our outlook and revoking the waiver would result in US EV sales falling further,” the analysts comment.

In Europe, the UK is now the leading EV market after Germany saw a fall in sales two years in a row following unexpected cuts to EV subsidies, mixed with automakers backtracking on their electrification commitments. The UK market benefits from a “relative openness” to Chinese automakers, the analysts note, an approach that is helping adoption in countries such as Australia, Thailand, Brazil, and Turkey.