The European scrap price downturn has spared German rebar pricing, but an impact cannot be ruled out in the medium term, Kallanish notes.

“It’s a really strange situation,” one western German buyer says. He notes that scrap prices in Germany have held up better than, for example, in the Netherlands, resulting in Dutch merchants trying to sell to the Ruhr region.

However, “nobody can make out the reaction of German mills”, which are enjoying the support provided by restricted supply amid production cuts at Riva (see separate story). Many observers are thus sure that base prices of €420+/tonne ($472) will be upheld. Some are more critical, saying this level is the upper end, while recent deals were done at €400/t – plus the size extra of €265 translating to €665/t delivered.

He also tells of an offer from Poland at €365/t, much lower than German prices. This is remarkable because half a year ago it was very much the other way round, with German mills fetching higher prices in Poland than at home.

Current German prices are also resulting in offers from Italy for delivery all the way to northern Germany, needing combined transport by truck and train, another player notes. The extra transport costs render Italian product not much cheaper than domestic. But still, “it is an option in the interest of diversifying your sources,” he says.