Seaborne iron ore prices experienced significant volatility in 2024, ultimately recording a sharp decline of over 20% for the year. On the final trading day of the year, seaborne iron ore prices saw a brief uptick, with both futures and spot markets showing strength.  

The Kallanish KORE 62% Fe index and KORE 65% Fe index increased by $2.89/tonne and $2.85/t, respectively, to $104.83/dry metric tonne cfr Qingdao and $119.23/dmt cfr. The KORE 58% Fe index gained by $3.37/t to $91.83/dmt cfr.

Among the bookings was a deal for 170,000t of BRBF Fines at $100.50/t with a laycan of 30 January to 8 February.

On the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), the most-traded May 2025 iron ore contract picked up by CNY 7/t ($0.96/t) to CNY 777/t on Tuesday.

On the Singapore Exchange, January 62% Fe futures settled $0.37/t higher at $100.97/t, and 65% Fe futures rose by $0.36/t to $115.24/t. The same contract for 58% Fe futures climbed up by $1.62/t to $87.65/t.

Meanwhile, 6mm+ heavy scrap delivered to mills in the Yangtze River Delta stayed at CNY 2,468/t. Tangshan billet, however, turned downward by CNY 10/t to CNY 3,040/t.

In the past 2024, KORE 62% Fe index, KORE 65% Fe index and KORE 58% Fe index fell by 27%, 23%, and 24%, respectively, compared with their levels of $143.72/t, $154.82/t, and $121.91/t on 2 January.

The market followed a "high-to-low" trajectory throughout the year. Early 2024 saw iron ore prices holding strong, fueled by pre-Spring Festival demand for stockpiling. However, post-holiday demand in China's steel sector fell short of expectations, increased port arrivals added inventory pressure, driving prices downward.  

By mid-year, Chinese steel mills' profitability had rebounded, leading to higher blast furnace utilisation in April and May, temporarily boosting iron ore prices. Yet, weaker demand and steel mills' losses in Q3 2024 triggered another decline. Starting in September, Chinese government economic stimulus measures improved market sentiment, sparking a limited price recovery. Still, this rebound was insufficient to offset earlier losses, leaving prices lower at year-end.  

Looking ahead to 2025, the supply side is expected to face upward pressure with new mining capacity and increased Chinese domestic iron ore production. A looser supply environment may further weigh on prices, keeping the trend downward.