China’s Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute (MPI) has released its forecast for steel demand in 2025, highlighting a continued decline in the country’s steel consumption and a similar trend across most global markets.

Kallanish learns from the report that China's steel consumption is projected to reach 863 million tonnes in 2024 and 850mt in 2025, reflecting year-on-year declines of 4.4% and 1.5%, respectively.  

By sector, the construction and railway industries are expected to see significant contractions in demand through 2024 and 2025. While demand from some industries such as machinery and automotive sectors is anticipated to grow, partially offsetting these declines, but it will not be sufficient to reverse the overall downward trend.

Ship container demand is forecast to surge in 2024 but is likely to plummet in 2025 due to volatility in the shipping market, marking a peak in container-related steel requirements.  

Globally, MPI projects steel consumption to reach 1.747 billion tonnes in 2024, a 1.4% decrease compared to 2023. For 2025, the forecast indicates a modest recovery, with global steel demand expected to rise by 0.6% to 1.758 billion tonnes. These projections are based on analysis of economic developments and steel demand trends across various regions.  

The findings underscore the challenges facing the steel industry amid slowing economic growth and fluctuating market conditions in both China and global market in 2024. 

However, looking ahead to 2025, growth in steel demand from Europe, the Americas, and the Middle East is expected to drive a modest rebound in global steel consumption.