Issue 16, 2025 - This week's editorial: Turkish scrap hits almost 3-year low, US HRC uptrend reverses

Turkish scrap prices plummeted over $25/tonne last week amid weakened sentiment after interest rate hikes, while Chinese hot rolled coil prices fell to a seven-month low as Donald Trump indicated he would raise tariffs on Chinese goods still further. This did not however stop Chinese crude steel output from growing 0.6% on-year in the first quarter. US HRC prices meanwhile declined for the first time since January as tariff-related restocking came to an end.

Turkish scrap prices declined throughout the week, reaching their lowest since June 2022 on Friday, with market participants debating where the floor lies. Following the Turkish central bank’s interest rate hike from 46% to 49%, which dented market sentiment, it seems this floor has moved lower. Weak rebar sales and sufficient scrap availability led many to think scrap prices could drop further. Some sources however pointed to collection issues in Europe limiting further decline.

Chinese HRC prices fell $8/t last week to their lowest level since last September after Trump’s announcement he would increase the import tariff rate on Chinese products to 245% dented sentiment. This was despite domestic economic data being fairly positive, with manufacturing PMI rising to 50.5 in March. In the export market, Chinese HRC remained in fierce competition with Japanese suppliers.

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