Issue 17, 2025 - This week's editorial: Chinese prices rise despite Politburo disappointment, India confirms safeguard

Another Chinese government meeting, more disappointment. Iron ore dropped down on Friday back to its week-beginning starting point just above $99/tonne after the Politburo meeting in Beijing ended without market stimulus - not that anyone was expecting miracles. Chinese domestic HRC and rebar prices nevertheless inched up amid stable demand, lower inventories and easing US trade tensions. India meanwhile confirmed the imposition of its 12% flat steel safeguard duty, to the delight of its steelmakers who have complained for months about low-priced imports. Turkish scrap stabilised after dropping to almost three-year lows but the market was lacking impetus. In Europe, coil transaction prices continued to be nowhere near mills’ targets, while another steelmaker revealed it was delaying its EAF transition and ArcelorMittal France announced job losses.

Chinese HRC and rebar prices each rose around $7/t on-week amid stable sales and despite the lack of Politburo meeting stimulus. 

Rebar spot volumes increased as downstream buyers and traders took the opportunity to replenish inventories. However, the pace of inventory decline slowed. US President Donald Trump's comments on significantly reducing tariffs on Chinese-origin imports provided a psychological boost to investors. However, demand from construction could slow again amid high temperatures in the summer season.

The Indian domestic coil market welcomed the government’s imposition of a 12% safeguard duty on flat steel imports for 200 days, with prices rising some $6/t on-week and expected to hike further in the coming days. However, the majority of the safeguard duty impact has already been priced in since the DGTR initially recommended the measure in mid-March. Nevertheless, despite recent overstocking, demand in the infrastructure end-user segment is expected to be strong in the April-June quarter before monsoons begin.

» Login to read the full report or sign up for a trial.