Issue 20, 2025 - This week's editorial: US-China deal lifts Chinese prices, European coil faces downturn

Last week started with a bang as the US and China announced a better-than-expected tariff agreement following talks in Geneva, but the excitement had largely fizzled out by the end of the week. The boost nevertheless lifted Chinese steel prices on-week, including those for hot rolled coil exports, which the market was however not ready to accept. The uptrend in Turkish scrap prices continued but was limited by weak steel demand, which forced Turkish mills to cut steel quotes. In Europe, the long-lasting gradual uptrend in HRC prices appeared to be coming to an end, with some transactions registered at lower values.

The big news to kick off the week was that the US and China agreed to temporarily slash so-called reciprocal tariffs and respective countermeasures to just 10% each for 90 days, to allow for further discussions. This gave the global economy hope that Donald Trump is more open to granting concessions than previously feared, and lifted sentiment.

Iron ore prices rose throughout the week, also supported by supply disruption, strengthening Chinese apparent steel demand and China's first reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 2025. Chinese domestic HRC and rebar prices also increased. Overall demand for HRC was broadly steady, with declining inventories and shortages of some specifications in many regions providing support. However, the market remained worried about weak demand over the medium term. HRC export prices rose $10/tonne on-week but were shunned by buyers.

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