Issue 21, 2025 - This week's editorial: Scrap outlook weakens, iron ore hits six-week low

Turkish scrap bookings slowed last week as mills resisted offers, while prices stabilised after the recent uptrend and looked more likely to correct downwards than rise further. Chinese rebar prices fell amid weak construction demand but solid consumption propped up hot rolled coil values, despite iron ore dropping to a six-week low on Friday. US President Donald Trump threatened 50% tariffs on imports from the EU, hitting market sentiment over the weekend, but subsequently agreed to extend the deadline for negotiations. Trump also said Nippon Steel and US Steel would form a “partnership” adding $14 billion to the US economy, without explaining details, while US HRC prices declined again. India saw a China-origin HRC booking following the buzz created a week prior by a Russia-origin HRC deal.

The latest Turkish scrap import deal was concluded from Denmark at $347/tonne cfr Türkiye for HMS 1&2 80:20, while mills rejected US and European suppliers’ quotes at above $350/t and $345/t cfr respectively as they struggled to sell steel. Turkish mills’ rebar values at above $550-555/t fob for rebar faced strong resistance in the global market, with demand from Yemen and Europe subsiding after Türkiye quickly filled its EU quota allocation.

Another factor preventing higher scrap prices from being accepted was declining HRC prices, weak steel demand and a subdued macroeconomic backdrop - all in the US domestic market. Moreover, Indian imported scrap demand was quiet amid a bid-offer mismatch due to sluggish domestic steel demand and comfortable raw material availability in the local market.

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