China’s steel output has continued to reach new record highs in 2020. The rapid growth of steel output over the last thirty years has also caused a steady increase in ferrous scrap generation. Unlike steel output, which is approaching its peak, scrap generation will sustain its surge for many more years to come. The shift is already causing a change in Chinese steelmaking, with EAF capacity expanding rapidly, helped along by policy incentives. China’s scrap demand will increase almost as rapidly as steel demand in the coming five years.
China is now on the step of another kind of transition however, which will bring more immediate impact to the world outside. If China begins the import of ferrous scrap, then the world’s largest producer and consumer of scrap will again become part of the global market. This will have far-reaching effects across both scrap and steel markets.
The Kallanish China Scrap Markets 2020 report provides a basis on which to understand the sector and its global impacts, as well as a set of expectations for how the sector will grow and develop in the coming years. This report is designed to provide a solid understanding for anyone looking at the sector, and attempt to give a forecast with a base-case scenario for Chinese scrap in the years up to 2025.