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Kallanish Kallanish

Knowledge matters Knowledge matters

January, 20th 2022

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China Steel Intelligence

Issue01-22 Jan. 12, 2022

CSI: New Year, new uncertainty

China is entering a difficult year with a number of risks. Kallanish has already laid out its base case forecasts, but it is worth reviewing some of the uncertainties at the start of the year. In this issue we highlight a few factors which could shift our forecasts over the …

Issue12-21 Dec. 14, 2021

CSI: China’s balancing act weighs on steel

China is treading a thin line between restructuring its real estate sector and ensuring economic stability, with serious consequences for steel demand. Output and export controls are meanwhile also in transition. With a range of uncertainties in the year to come, we outline our base case for the year in …

Issue11-21 Nov. 8, 2021

CSI: Real estate signals long term demand decline

Reports on China, and especially on real estate, have focussed on the short term debt crises of a few companies. Beyond the concern over a debt crisis however, lies a longer-term trend and policy goals which pose serious problems for steel demand.

If China is able to wean itself off …

Issue10-21 Oct. 11, 2021

CSI: Power, debt cloud steel markets

China’s steel markets are in the midst of a seasonal recovery in demand during a period when iron ore prices are under pressure and steelmakers should be able to sustain strong margins. You would be forgiven for not noticing his however, considering the two dramatic turns of events which rocked …