China-origin, non-VAT-paying hot rolled coil offers from tier-two mills with a $20-30/tonne discount to tier-one product have disappeared from the Gulf Cooperation Council. This has narrowed the gap between tier-one and tier-two suppliers to $8-10/t, notes Kallanish.

"We’ve heard that the Chinese government has launched an investigation into HRC trade without VAT, which has prompted trading companies to keep their distance from such practices to avoid being caught on the radar," a trading company official explains.

Towards the end of last week, ex-China HRC offers gained $5-10/t compared to the beginning of the week, and price stability has been largely maintained in the GCC market as of Tuesday.

This week, the region's largest re-roller issued an enquiry for 25,000 tonnes of HRC and 10,000t of cold rolled full hard (CRFH) for July arrival.

Initial offers for 2mm re-rolling grade (SAE 1006) HRC from Chinese tier-one mills are at $575-585/t for end-June/July load-readiness, $585/t ex-Taiwan for July shipment, and $580-590/t ex-Japan for July dispatch.

Meanwhile, the Chinese major's 1.2mm SPHT-1 grade offer from its ESP line is hovering at around $615/t for end-May shipment, while its Chinese rival is at $605/t for June shipment. Similarly, the ex-China offer for 0.35mm+ CRFH is at $605/t for June loading.

All prices are based on cfr Dammam, Jebel Ali or Abu Dhabi ports.

"Monitoring domestic market sentiment in China and buying appetite in Europe, Türkiye, and other major consuming countries, Far Eastern mills are focusing on sales in export deals in Asia. I expect price volatility in HRC to continue with ups and downs, but not to exceed $580-590/t cfr GCC ports from Chinese and non-Chinese suppliers," comments an experienced trading source.