Following last week’s deals in Europe, Indian hot rolled coil producers have withdrawn their existing quotes from the market. Mills are now mulling hiking their export quotes after concluding multiple deals and satisfying their export appetite, sources inform Kallanish.

Mid through last week, Indian structural grade HRC offers to Europe were heard at $635-640/tonne cfr Italy and $640-645/t cfr Antwerp. Multiple deals were heard concluding last week in the range of $638-645/t cfr Spain and Antwerp. No firm offers were heard this Wednesday, but market participants expect the new prices to hover at around $650-660/t cfr Antwerp.

“Following the hike in prices by China and other origins, coupled with good demand from Europe right ahead of winter holidays has stimulated Indian mills to hike their offers,” says a trading source. “These bookings in Europe along with the recent deals in the Gulf Cooperation Council, Turkey and Vietnam have almost exhausted India’s export allocations for January shipments and, owing to this, steelmakers are hesitant to roll out the same numbers for their next offer.”

Meanwhile in the GCC, following the late-November and early-December bookings by Indian mills, current indications for Indian structural grade HRC are noted at $625-630/t cfr GCC, up by $10-15/t on-week. Buyers, however, have halted their purchases and prefer to wait till Europe goes on its winter break. No bookings for Indian material were done this week.

“The buyers have already started resisting the new price indications by the Indian mills,” a source informs. “Buyers who do not have urgent requirements have postponed their purchases to the last week of December … on the strong belief that India will reduce their quotes after the European holidays.”

Kallanish assessed Indian HRC export offers at $590-600/t fob India.

Offer indications to Vietnam are heard at around $600-610/t cfr Vietnam from India’s east coast. A few sources also inform of hearing offers at $620-625/t cfr Vietnam from the Indian west coast.

Meanwhile, offers for E250 grade HRC in the Indian domestic market were noted at INR 53,000-54,000/t ex-Mumbai. Domestic buyers fear prices surging on the back of sentiment developing in the export market. Import offers from Vietnam meanwhile rose marginally to $600-605/t cfr India.

Despite Indian mills’ expectations of a price hike, the majority of buyers feel prices will come down. Sources opine crude oil prices have come down, coking coal and iron ore are not aggressively high and, because of this, there are no supporting elements available for the HRC price hike.

Moreover, China will try to accelerate its exports as Chinese domestic steel consumption has come down on the back of surging Covid cases. This will further soften global sentiment.